No. Absolutely not. First of all, the Soviet experiment was done (and has been replicated in other versions) with educated experts. Second of all, it isn’t very technical at all to ask for a probability. People learn these in grade school. How do you think you can begin to talk to the Bayesians when you think probability estimate is a technical term? They use far more difficult math than that as parts of their basic apparatus. Incidentally, this hypothesis also is ruled out by the follow-up studies which have already been linked to in this thread that show that the conjunction fallacy shows up when people are trying to bet.
I have to wonder if your fanatical approach to Popper is causing problems in which you think or act that you think that any criticism, no matter how weak, or ill-informed allows the rejection of a claim until someone responds to that specific criticism. This is not a healthy attitude if one is interested in an exchange of ideas.
No. Absolutely not. First of all, the Soviet experiment was done (and has been replicated in other versions) with educated experts. Second of all, it isn’t very technical at all to ask for a probability. People learn these in grade school. How do you think you can begin to talk to the Bayesians when you think probability estimate is a technical term? They use far more difficult math than that as parts of their basic apparatus. Incidentally, this hypothesis also is ruled out by the follow-up studies which have already been linked to in this thread that show that the conjunction fallacy shows up when people are trying to bet.
I have to wonder if your fanatical approach to Popper is causing problems in which you think or act that you think that any criticism, no matter how weak, or ill-informed allows the rejection of a claim until someone responds to that specific criticism. This is not a healthy attitude if one is interested in an exchange of ideas.